The year 2022 has seen war in Ukraine, a spate of shootings in the United States, a new surge of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border, and a landmark Supreme Court decision that rolled back the nationwide right to abortion.
But ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm elections that will determine control of Congress, voters clearly have one thing on their mind: their wallets.
Reuters/Ipsos survey data shows that inflation and the economy are far and away the most pressing issues among those who say they are likely to vote.
With inflation running at the highest levels since the early 1980s, this isn’t an abstract concern. Many respondents say their personal finances have eroded and they are scaling back their purchases.
This is potentially good news for Republicans, who have been talking about inflation and economic concerns as they seek to win control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
On other issues, voters trust Democrats more. Many Democratic candidates have been emphasizing their support for abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court’s June ruling that overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that established a nationwide right to abortion.
These results should point to gains for Republicans in the November elections. The president’s party – in this case, President Joe Biden’s Democrats – has since World War II almost always lost seats in the first midterm election after taking office. This year, they are also playing defense on inflation, voters’ top concern.
However, in a polarized political era, issues may not trump party affiliation. Republicans and Democrats say they are highly motivated to back candidates from their party in this elections, while independents say they are less certain to vote.
Sources
Results based on a Reuters/Ipsos online survey of 3,516 respondents who say they are likely to vote or have already voted in the November midterm election, conducted between Sept. 27 and Oct. 3, 2022. Results have a credibility interval, a measure of uncertainty, of 2.0 percentage points. The credibility interval for the final question, about party affiliation and likelihood of voting, is between 2.6 percentage points and 5.5 percentage points.
Edited by
Jason Lange and Scott Malone