Jobs, inflation and the midterm polling

Midterm Polling

It’s the economy, stupid

Jobs, inflation and partisan politics

The year 2022 has seen war in Ukraine, a spate of shootings in the United States, a new surge of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border, and a landmark Supreme Court decision that rolled back the nationwide right to abortion.

But ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm elections that will determine control of Congress, voters clearly have one thing on their mind: their wallets.

Reuters/Ipsos survey data shows that inflation and the economy are far and away the most pressing issues among those who say they are likely to vote.

What is the most important problem

facing the U.S. today?

Inflation

29%

Gun violence or

mass shootings

Jobs and economy

15%

8%

Abortion or changing

abortion laws

Climate or

environment

Immigration

7%

6%

6%

What is the most important

problem facing the U.S. today?

Inflation

29%

Gun violence or

mass shootings

Jobs and economy

15%

8%

Abortion or changing

abortion laws

Immigration

7%

6%

Climate or environment

6%

With inflation running at the highest levels since the early 1980s, this isn’t an abstract concern. Many respondents say their personal finances have eroded and they are scaling back their purchases.

Are your personal finances stronger

or weaker than a year ago?

About the same

Stronger

Weaker

45%

33%

21%

Are your personal finances stronger

or weaker than a year ago?

About the same

Stronger

Weaker

45%

33%

21%

Are your personal finances

stronger or weaker

than a year ago?

Weaker

45%

Stronger

About the same

21%

33%

What have you done in the past

year because of rising costs?

Switched to cheaper brands

when food shopping

45%

Saving

less money

Switched to cheaper brands

for clothes or basic goods

41%

37%

Postponed

major purchases

Dipping into savings

to pay bills

Scaled back

vacation plans

28%

23%

32%

What have you done in the past

year because of rising costs?

Switched to cheaper brands

when food shopping

45%

Saving

less money

Switched to cheaper brands

for clothes or basic goods

41%

37%

Postponed

major purchases

Dipping into savings

to pay bills

Scaled back

vacation plans

28%

23%

32%

What have you done in the past

year because of rising costs?

Switched to cheaper brands

when food shopping

45%

Switched to

cheaper brands for

clothes or basic goods

Saving

less money

41%

37%

Postponed

major purchases

Dipping into savings

to pay bills

28%

32%

Scaled back

vacation plans

23%

Many say their personal finances have eroded and they are scaling back their purchases.

This is potentially good news for Republicans, who have been talking about inflation and economic concerns as they seek to win control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Which party has the better approach

for tackling inflation?

Republicans

Democrats

42%

31%

Which party has the better approach

for tackling inflation?

Republicans

Democrats

42%

31%

Which party has the better

approach for tackling

the U.S. economy?

Republicans

42%

Democrats

31%

Which party has the better approach

for tackling the U.S. economy?

Republicans

Democrats

41%

32%

Which party has the better approach

for tackling the U.S. economy?

Republicans

Democrats

41%

32%

Which party has the better

approach for tackling

the U.S. economy?

Republicans

41%

Democrats

32%

The Reuters/Ipsos survey finds that voters trust Republicans more than Democrats to tackle both inflation and economic issues in general.

On other issues, voters trust Democrats more. Many Democratic candidates have been emphasizing their support for abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court’s June ruling that overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that established a nationwide right to abortion.

Which party has the better approach

for tackling abortion policy?

Republicans

Democrats

25%

46%

Which party has the better approach

for tackling abortion policy?

Republicans

Democrats

25%

46%

Which party has the better

approach for tackling

abortion policy?

Republicans

25%

Democrats

46%

Which party has the better approach

for tackling healthcare?

Democrats

Republicans

31%

43%

Which party has the better approach

for tackling healthcare?

Democrats

Republicans

31%

43%

Which party has the better

approach for tackling

healthcare?

Republicans

31%

43%

But polling so far suggests this is not the top issue for a majority of voters.

These results should point to gains for Republicans in the November elections. The president’s party – in this case, President Joe Biden’s Democrats – has since World War II almost always lost seats in the first midterm election after taking office. This year, they are also playing defense on inflation, voters’ top concern.

However, in a polarized political era, issues may not trump party affiliation. Republicans and Democrats say they are highly motivated to back candidates from their party in this elections, while independents say they are less certain to vote.

Are you certain you will vote, or have you

already voted in the Nov. 8 elections?

Republicans

Democrats

Independents

85%

83%

57%

Are you certain you will vote, or have you

already voted in the Nov. 8 elections?

Republicans

Democrats

Independents

85%

83%

57%

Are you certain you will vote, or have you already voted in the Nov. 8 elections?

Republicans

85%

Democrats

83%

Independents

57%

Sources

Results based on a Reuters/Ipsos online survey of 3,516 respondents who say they are likely to vote or have already voted in the November midterm election, conducted between Sept. 27 and Oct. 3, 2022. Results have a credibility interval, a measure of uncertainty, of 2.0 percentage points. The credibility interval for the final question, about party affiliation and likelihood of voting, is between 2.6 percentage points and 5.5 percentage points.

Edited by

Jason Lange and Scott Malone