Baseball lifts San Diego's spirits. Can it revive a pandemic-stricken U.S. economy?
It was Saturday night in downtown San Diego, and J Street near the Petco Park baseball stadium was bustling.
Fans of the hometown Padres, many decked out in team gear, packed the bars and restaurants with more waiting in line and happy to do so after a year of pandemic lockdown.
“It’s definitely a feel-good time,” said lawyer Chris Schon, 33, as he waited for a table outside Bub’s at the Ballpark, a sports bar.
However festive the scene, it nonetheless highlights some of the limits emerging in the U.S. economic recovery.
The Padres have been “selling out” most every game since Major League Baseball’s reopening a month ago, but in the age of coronavirus that means hitting an attendance cap of around 15,000, or roughly a third of capacity. Elsewhere in the league, results are lagging.
The surrounding restaurants, dependent on summertime ballpark crowds, remain limited to 50% capacity in California for at least another month. Owners expect depressed revenue through 2021 and worry that even as restrictions are lifted people will hesitate to join standing-room-only crowds.
Change in game day foot traffic around Petco Park
April 2021 vs. the 2019 home game average
DOWNTOWN SAN DIEGO
Foot traffic represented
within this area
J Street
Petco Park
E. Harbor Dr.
San Diego
Convention Center
500 ft.
0
Thurs. April 1
Fri. April 2
Sat. April 3
Sun. April 4
Mon. April 5
Tues. April 6
Wed. April 7
Fri. April 16
Sat. April 17
Sun. April 18
Mon. April 19
Tues. April 20
Wed. April 21
Fri. April 30
San Diego Bay
–50%
Down 51% on
Opening Day
0
DOWNTOWN SAN DIEGO
Thurs. April 1
Fri. April 2
Sat. April 3
Sun. April 4
Mon. April 5
Tues. April 6
Wed. April 7
Fri. April 16
Sat. April 17
Sun. April 18
Mon. April 19
Tues. April 20
Wed. April 21
Fri. April 30
Foot traffic represented
within this area
J Street
Petco Park
–50%
E. Harbor Dr.
Down 51% on
Opening Day
San Diego
Convention Center
500 ft.
0
DOWNTOWN SAN DIEGO
Tues. April 6
Fri. April 16
Thurs. April 1
Fri. April 2
Sat. April 3
Sun. April 4
Mon. April 5
Wed. April 7
Sat. April 17
Sun. April 18
Mon. April 19
Tues. April 20
Wed. April 21
Fri. April 30
Foot traffic represented
within this area
J Street
–50%
Down 51% on
Opening Day
E. Harbor Dr.
Petco Park
San Diego
Convention Center
500 ft.
DOWNTOWN SAN DIEGO
Foot traffic represented
within this area
J Street
Petco Park
E. Harbor Dr.
San Diego
Convention Center
500 ft.
0
Tues. April 6
Fri. April 16
Thurs. April 1
Fri. April 2
Sat. April 3
Sun. April 4
Mon. April 5
Wed. April 7
Sat. April 17
Sun. April 18
Mon. April 19
Tues. April 20
Wed. April 21
Fri. April 30
–50%
Down 51% on
Opening Day
“Back in the good old days, we were four or five deep at the bar, slinging beers… Are people going to get turned off by that?” wondered Brant Crenshaw, a partner in the Social Tap bar and restaurant where big-screen TVs and picture window views of the ballpark are a draw.
His opening day revenue this year? Around $15,000 versus $30,000 to $40,000 in prior years.
Not back to where we were
The start of a full baseball season with 162 games on tap was a milestone in the U.S. reopening. The 2020 season, shortened to 60 games and played in empty stadiums, gave way to the fanfare of Opening Day 2021 and dreams of playoff games packed with cheering crowds come October.
Restrictions are being eased as coronavirus vaccinations proceed and daily infections and deaths ebb.
Among the largest U.S. states, Texas and Florida have dropped all COVID-related limits, New York is allowing restaurants to reopen at full capacity on May 19, and California plans to lift most remaining restrictions on June 15.
However, data including national travel statistics as well as stadium-by-stadium baseball attendance compiled by Reuters suggests people remain hesitant, putting a potential brake on how quickly some parts of the economy will improve.
Daily total attendance in 2021
Overall attendance through May 2 was down 66% from the 2019 season average
Reported attendance
Unsold seats
The 29 U.S.-based MLB stadiums are selling an average of just under 74.8% of the limited numbers of seats each team has made available. That compares with an average paid attendance of 67.6% at fully open stadiums before the pandemic. While higher now, it’s not break-down-the-doors higher at a time when households have record levels of cash saved over the past year.
The 30-team MLB’s one non-U.S. club, the Toronto Blue Jays, are playing at a minor league stadium in Florida because of travel restrictions between Canada and the United States.
Attendance in 2021 by team
Even with limited attendance, some teams have struggled to fill available seats.
Globe Life Field*
Texas Rangers
from 2019
Minute Maid Park
Houston Astros
from 2019
Coors Field
Colorado Rockies
from 2019
Tropicana Field
Tampa Bay Rays
from 2019
Truist Park
Atlanta Braves
from 2019
Busch Stadium
St. Louis Cardinals
from 2019
Great American Ballpark
Cincinnati Reds
from 2019
Progressive Field
Cleveland Indians
from 2019
Kauffman Stadium
Kansas City Royals
from 2019
Chase Field
Arizona Diamondbacks
from 2019
Camden Yards
Baltimore Orioles
from 2019
American Family Field
Milwaukee Brewers
from 2019
Target Field
Minnesota Twins
from 2019
PNC Park
Pittsburgh Pirates
from 2019
Marlins Park
Miami Marlins
from 2019
Dodger Stadium
Los Angeles Dodgers
from 2019
Yankee Stadium
New York Yankees
from 2019
Petco Park
San Diego Padres
from 2019
Oakland Coliseum
Oakland Athletics
from 2019
Angel Stadium
Los Angeles Angels
from 2019
T-Mobile Park
Seattle Mariners
from 2019
Citizens Bank Park
Philadelphia Phillies
from 2019
Citi Field
New York Mets
from 2019
Wrigley Field
Chicago Cubs
from 2019
Oracle Park
San Francisco Giants
from 2019
Comerica Park
Detroit Tigers
from 2019
Guaranteed Rate Field
Chicago White Sox
from 2019
TD Ballpark**
Toronto Blue Jays
from 2019
Fenway Park
Boston Red Sox
from 2019
Nationals Park
Washington Nationals
from 2019
More broadly, air travel has climbed back to only around 60% of pre-pandemic levels. An April Conference Board survey found 43% of respondents planned a vacation within the next six months, up from around 30% during the pandemic but well off the 55% or more before the health crisis.
Consumers spent heavily on goods during much of the pandemic, but services account for two-thirds of the economy so a fulsome recovery needs spending on everything from healthcare to baseball games to find its way back.
“When are things going to get back to normal? When people don’t worry about the virus anymore,” said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors and an economics professor at the University of Oregon. “If you are still not willing to go to a ballgame, if you cannot get more than 60% travel, we are not back to where we were.”
“Apocalypse” gives way to “electric”
Near Petco Park, but for the few face masks in the crowd, things appeared much as they did before the pandemic. Firefighters played Wiffle ball outside their station. A jazz band played around the corner.
If last year’s emptied downtown “was the apocalypse,” said Cory Whitmore, 44, a cyber security engineer who wore his “Friar Faithful” jersey to Basic Bar/Pizza, the Saturday scene had now turned “electric.”
Erik Tesmer, Basic’s general manager and part owner, said the baseball season pulls in roughly 70% of the business at his industrial brick building, previously home to a horse carriage repair shop and a surfboard company.
Revenue plummeted to 25% of normal in 2020, and the restaurant survived only thanks to two Paycheck Protection Program loans from the federal government. Basic was able to keep about 15 employees on payroll, down from 50, Tesmer said.
Baseball may be back, and for long-suffering Padres fans there is even hope the team’s off-season spending on players will mean wins - and sellouts - as stadium attendance limits are likely raised through the summer.
But Tesmer notes the gaps still in San Diego’s larger ecosystem. Comic-Con, a summertime comic book and entertainment convention, was canceled last year and again in 2021, as was a music festival set to move downtown. Basic will be lucky to generate 50% of typical revenue this year, Tesmer said.
His best hope, he said, is for a winning Padres season.
“With a good season … we could be packed wall to wall and everybody is in a good mood and ready to get back to normal,” he said. “It certainly would help us if there are playoff games.”
Sources
Opta Sports; Baseball-Reference.com, Major League Baseball; Unacast