Ukraine | Russia

The Road to Stalemate

Nearly five months into what Russia had planned as a swift invasion, Ukraine has preserved its sovereignty and pushed back Russian forces in some areas. Since the Russian capture of eastern Luhansk province in early July, the conflict has evolved into a grinding contest of long-range artillery bombardments and missile strikes on cities.

This report, relying on data derived from satellite-images provided by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), a think tank, as well as Reuters reporting from the ground and other commercial satellite imagery, captures key moments on the road to the current military impasse.

I

A swift, deadly beginning

Ukrainians on Feb. 24 were awakened before dawn by air raid sirens, the sounds of artillery and missiles, and the news that Russia had begun a full-scale invasion. The opening hours of the war seemed to portend a rout.

Convoys of armoured vehicles streamed into Ukrainian territory with little resistance. Russian state media announced that Ukraine's air defences had been incapacitated. Columns of Russian forces appeared poised to close, vice-like, around major cities. Both Western governments and Ukraine warned that the capital Kyiv would likely be under assault within days.

Map of Ukraine showing locations of air and missile strikes across the country on Feb 24.

II

Stiff resistance

But the pace of the invasion slowed. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said on Feb. 25 that Russia had “failed to deliver” on its main early objectives. Videos and pictures emerged from the war zone showing fierce resistance by Ukrainian fighters.

Reuters has mapped out how the areas controlled by each side have shifted during the conflict, day by day.

The ASPI data, commercial satellite images and on-the-ground reporting by Reuters establish how Russia’s swift drive to take Kyiv faltered in the face of a fierce Ukrainian counteroffensive that retook swathes of territory where Russia had failed to establish its control.

In the latest phase of the conflict, the data shows how the frontlines have settled in recent weeks as both sides have consolidated their positions - with Russia eking out small additional gains in the east, and Ukraine battling to claw back land in the south – with neither marshalling the resources for a decisive breakthrough.

A timeline highlighting the interval 24-28 Feb.

By March 1, Western intelligence said Russia’s attempt to surround Kyiv had stalled. A column of reinforcements was stuck on a highway tens of kilometres away, halted by destroyed bridges and poor off-road conditions. Ukrainian forces flooded an area north of Kyiv, forcing Russian vehicles to divert westward into the teeth of prepared defenses. This prevented a direct assault on the capital and snarled logistics, giving Ukrainian forces an advantage against their numerically superior opponents, military analysts said.

Satellite imagery with infrared data from Copernicus Sentinel-2 shows flooded areas northwest of Kyiv in early March.

Russian special forces were dropped by helicopter into Hostomel airport outside Kyiv. They were expected to hold the airfield so cargo planes could land with troops and equipment to make a final push into the capital, analysts said. But the Ukrainian military responded quickly. The airfield changed hands several times—never secured long enough for Russian aircraft to land.

Video from satellite imagery showing ground forces.

In the south, Russian forces had more success, capturing by early March the midsize cities of Melitopol and Kherson, both seen as key staging posts on a drive west to Odesa, a major Black Sea port.

“In the first week or two, it was really hard to define control because the Russian strategy in many cases was dashing through territory uncontested, and not ensuring control of territory they passed through,” said Nathan Ruser, an ASPI researcher.

Ruser estimated that 90 percent of the territory taken by Russia was captured in the first week of the invasion. “The strategy actually worked better in the south, where Ukrainian forces were less prepared, or there were fewer of them,” he said.

The defense ministries of Russia and Ukraine did not respond to requests for comment about Russia’s successes in the south and its failure to consolidate control elsewhere. Ukrainian presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych said in May that mistakes were made in the defence of the south, such as the failure to blow up bridges to halt the Russian advance: “The biggest question is where there was incompetence and where there was treason.”

A timeline highlighting the interval 1-10 Mar.

Siege warfare on key cities

Kharkiv, a few miles from the border with Russia, suffers punishing artillery and missile strikes but remains in Ukrainian hands.

A timeline highlighting the interval 11-31 March.

III

Stalled, then collapsed

Ukrainian air defences remained active, downing Russian aircraft including front-line Su-34 fighter-bombers over three days in early March. Russia begins to reduce air activity over most of Ukraine, instead air-launching cruise missiles from outside the country.

Military aid to Ukraine began within hours of the invasion, with shipments of anti-tank missiles such as the FGM-148 Javelin from the United States, and NLAW from Britain. As the flow of aid increased and the types of weapons arriving became more advanced, videos of anti-tank missiles destroying Russian vehicles flooded the Internet, as did montages of Ukraine's armed drones--the Turkish-made TB2 Bayraktar--destroying targets from the air.

Lacking air support, and with such strikes ravaging their supply lines, Russian forces began to pull back around Kyiv. A consolidation of positions turned into a full retreat by April 1.

The Russian defense ministry did not respond to a request for comment about the retreat.

On April 22, the Russian military announced it was refocusing on a “second phase” of the operation in the East, with Kyiv remaining in Ukrainian hands.

A timeline highlighting the interval 1-30 Apr.

Surrender of Mariupol

Ukrainian fighters inside the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol resisted for more than 80 days, keeping some Russian forces fixed in the city even as operations elsewhere needed manpower.

Drone footage showing people being carried on stretchers from the Azovstal steel plant.

In the end, about 1,700 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered in mid-May. Russian state media reported that at least 1,000 of them were transferred to Russia for investigation.

IV

The next phase

In May, Russia reoriented its forces to the east and north of Ukraine. But the renewed offensives seemed to gain little ground, and only on small, focused fronts far from potential targets such as the central town of Dnipro.

A timeline highlighting the interval 1-31 May.

Ukraine contested Russia's control of the sea, with missile strikes sinking an amphibious landing ship at a pier in Berdiansk in late March, and the cruiser Moskva in mid-April in the Black Sea.

Ukrainian strikes against the Russian-controlled Snake Island, about 142 km southwest of Odesa and just a few tens of kilometres off the Ukraine coast, damaged more ships and sank a landing craft. The island occupies a strategic position for controlling the Black Sea, but is difficult to safely resupply, according to the British Ministry of Defense.

On June 30, after additional Ukrainian artillery strikes, Russia withdrew from the island, calling it an act of goodwill to demonstrate it was not obstructing U.N. efforts to unblock grain stranded in Ukraine's Black Sea ports. Kyiv dismissed that as untrue.

A satellite image showing a Serna-class landing craft and possible missile contrail in the sea near Snake Island, Ukraine.
A satellite image shows a Serna-class landing craft and possible missile contrail near Snake Island, Ukraine May 12, 2022. Picture taken May 12, 2022. Satellite image 2022 Maxar Technologies./Handout via REUTERS

Artillery and trench warfare in Donbas

In early June, Russia moved more units to the eastern front and made incremental progress, taking the town of Popasna. Its forces threaten to encircle the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk, a few miles from the original line of contact, where Ukraine had fought Russian-backed separatist forces since 2014.

A collage of satellite images and a drone photo.

A timeline highlighting the period 1-14 June.

Crossing the Siverskyi Donets river

The Siverskyi Donets river was an obstacle to Russian efforts to advance in the east. Around May 11, a Russian brigade attempted a crossing west of Sievierodonetsk. But Ukrainian forces discovered the location and over the course of a day destroyed nearly all of the assembled Russian vehicles–70 or more tanks, trucks and armoured vehicles, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

Using infrared sensors on satellite images, fires can be used to map the outlines of battles as destroyed targets burn. These images show that overlaid with visual maps of the fighting, the fires often align identically with the frontlines.

Satellite image and infrared image showing plumes of smoke near the Siverskyi Donets river.
Left, a satellite image shows plumes of smoke near the Siverskyi Donets river, in Ukraine, May 8, 2022. Right, a satellite image with infrared data shows fires near the Siverskyi Donets river, in Ukraine, May 8, 2022.

Satellite imagery and a series of maps show plumes of smoke and fires data in contested areas around the Siverskyi Donets river in May and June.

Fires evident on 8th May

NASA’s Sentinel satellite clearly captured plumes of smoke from multiple fires burning in the fiercely contested areas around the Siverskyi Donets river.

Hotspots

The fires in the images match hotspot data collected by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard the joint NASA/NOAA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite, which collects data on short-term weather conditions and climate change.

Fires that week

Fire data from May 6 to May 9 shows intense activity that coincides with the areas of fierce fighting.

Fires from June 6 to June 12

One week of data from June 6 gives a clear indication of frontlines. Intense fire is visible around Kharkiv and near the Siverskyi Donets river. Fires also stretch along the southern front where Russian and Ukrainian areas of control meet.

Map of Ukraine showing the fires as dots, concentrated around the east of the country around the Siverskyi Donets river, together with the Russian area of control.

V

What comes next

Although most of Russia's “second phase” offensives have fizzled, and its forces have been pushed back from around Kharkiv, it has made gains in the east, including Sievierodonetsk.

With most of its firepower massed in that area, the Russian military has been able to hammer Ukrainian units. Three analysts interviewed by Reuters said these gains have come at a significant cost in soldiers and equipment, due in part to Ukrainians’ use of more sophisticated weapons supplied by Western allies. Ukrainian casualties have also risen, with an aide to Zelenskiy saying their forces in the area were losing up to 200 troops a day.

“The Ukrainians have managed to hit Russian supply lines and depots, sometimes far behind Russian lines, with a combination of airstrikes, missiles, and long-range artillery strikes,” said Karolina Hird, Russia researcher at the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based research organisation.

Neither the Russian nor Ukrainian ministries of defense responded to requests for comment about recent battlefield losses and capabilities.

As the protracted attritional warfare degrades its battlefield personnel and equipment, a large assault by Russia deep into Ukraine may no longer be possible, Hird said.

“Russian troops do not have the manpower, nor will they be able to generate it, to launch any sort of offensive resembling the initial Feb. 24 assault in the foreseeable future,” she said.

By mid-June, Ukraine forces had fought to within 20km of Kherson. Fighting in the east had slowed dramatically, and Britain’s Ministry of Defense noted that some reports said Russian battalion tactical groups had in some cases been able to muster a few dozen troops – far fewer than the 600-800 they typically have.

By June 26, Ukrainian forces had pulled out of the destroyed town of Sievierodonetsk to defensive positions across the Siverskyi Donets River. By the first week of July, they had retreated from Lysychansk as well, handing them control of the whole of Luhansk. That left Russian forces in control of all of Luhansk Oblast, one of the two areas it has demanded Ukraine cede to separatists in the Donbas region. Since then it has paused its advance.

In recent days, Ukraine has unleashed HIMARS mobile rocket systems received from the United States, striking targets deep in Russian-held territory, according to both Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine says it is preparing a counter-attack in coming weeks to recapture a swath of southern territory near the Black Sea coast, and was bracing for a Russian offensive in the eastern region of Donetsk, amid an increase in shelling and missile strikes.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on July 16 ordered military units to intensify operations to prevent Ukrainian strikes on areas held by Russia.

Correction

A previous version of this story stated that, by the first week of July, Ukrainian forces had retreated from Luhansk. They'd retreated from Lysychansk.

Sources

Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI); Janes, open-source defence intelligence provider; Fire Information Resource Management System (FIRMS), NASA; Copernicus Sentinel-2; Maxar Technologies; Natural Earth; OpenStreetMap; Worldpop.org

Additional reporting by

Humeyra Pamuk and Tom Balmforth

Edited by

Simon Scarr and Daniel Flynn