UNDERSTANDING COVID-19
In Africa, a lack of data raises fears of ‘silent epidemic’
Africa could face a “silent epidemic” if its leaders do not prioritize testing for the new coronavirus, the World Health Organization (WHO) has said. Just over 420 tests per 100,000 people have been carried out across the continent of 1.3 billion, a Reuters analysis found.
Testing rates
vary widely across Africa
Tanzania has not published nationwide figures since May 8, when it had recorded 509 cases and 21 deaths.
Tests per million
No data
0
1K
10K
100K
Tunisia
Morocco
Algeria
Lybia
Egypt
Mauritania
Sudan
Mali
Niger
Chad
Nigeria
Ghana
Ethiopia
CAR
In West Africa, Ghana’s testing is unrivalled. There are over 21,000 confirmed cases from more than 313,000 tests. Three countries to the north, which are battling Islamists militants, have carried out 31,000 tests between them.
DRC
Tanzania
Zambia
Madagascar
Botswana
South
Africa
South Africa, home to nearly 60 million people, has carried out 1.9 million tests, by far the most on the continent. It accounts for over 40% of Africa’s cases.
It took three months before Democratic Republic of Congo was able to process tests outside the capital Kinshasa. In many areas, it still takes two weeks to get results.
Source: United Nations, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
Testing rates
vary widely across Africa
Tests per million
No data
Tunisia
0
1K
10K
100K
Morocco
Algeria
Lybia
Egypt
Mauritania
Sudan
Mali
Niger
Chad
Tanzania has not published nationwide figures since May 8, when it had recorded 509 cases and 21 deaths.
Senegal
B.Faso
Nigeria
Somalia
Ethiopia
Ghana
South Sudan
CAR
Cameroon
Uganda
In West Africa, Ghana’s testing is unrivalled. There are over 21,000 confirmed cases from more than 313,000 tests. Three countries to the north, which are battling Islamists militants, have carried out 31,000 tests between them.
Kenya
DRC
Tanzania
Angola
Mozambique
Zambia
Madagascar
Zimbabwe
Namibia
Botswana
It took three months before Democratic Republic of Congo was able to process tests outside the capital Kinshasa. In many areas, it still takes two weeks to get results.
South Africa, home to nearly 60 million people, has carried out 1.9 million tests, by far the most on the continent. It accounts for over 40% of Africa’s cases.
South
Africa
Source: United Nations, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
Tests per million
No data
Testing rates
vary widely across Africa
Tunisia
0
1K
10K
100K
Morocco
Algeria
Lybia
Egypt
Mauritania
Sudan
Mali
Niger
Chad
In West Africa, Ghana’s testing is unrivalled. There are over 21,000 confirmed cases from more than 313,000 tests. Three countries to the north, which are battling Islamists militants, have carried out 31,000 tests between them.
Senegal
B.Faso
Tanzania has not published nationwide figures since May 8, when it had recorded 509 cases and 21 deaths.
Nigeria
Somalia
Ethiopia
Ghana
South Sudan
CAR
Cameroon
Uganda
Kenya
DRC
Tanzania
Angola
It took three months before Democratic Republic of Congo was able to process tests outside the capital Kinshasa. In many areas, it still takes two weeks to get results.
Mozambique
Zambia
Madagascar
Zimbabwe
Namibia
Botswana
South Africa, home to nearly 60 million people, has carried out 1.9 million tests, by far the most on the continent. It accounts for over 40% of Africa’s cases.
South
Africa
Source: United Nations, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
Testing rates
vary widely across Africa
Tanzania has not published nationwide figures since May 8, when it had recorded 509 cases and 21 deaths.
Tests per million
No data
0
1K
10K
100K
Tunisia
Morocco
Algeria
Lybia
Egypt
Mauritania
Sudan
Mali
Niger
Chad
Nigeria
Ghana
Ethiopia
CAR
In West Africa, Ghana’s testing is unrivalled. There are over 21,000 confirmed cases from more than 313,000 tests. Three countries to the north, which are battling Islamists militants, have carried out 31,000 tests between them.
DRC
Tanzania
Zambia
Madagascar
Botswana
South
Africa
South Africa, home to nearly 60 million people, has carried out 1.9 million tests, by far the most on the continent. It accounts for over 40% of Africa’s cases.
It took three months before Democratic Republic of Congo was able to process tests outside the capital Kinshasa. In many areas, it still takes two weeks to get results.
Source: United Nations, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
As global cases of the new coronavirus climb past the 11 million mark, Africa still accounts for a small fraction of infections, with over 493,000 confirmed cases and 11,600 deaths to date. However, the official figures almost certainly do not tell the whole story. Testing across a swathe of African countries is patchy at best and sometimes non-existent.
By July 7, 4,200 tests per million people had been carried out across the continent, according to a Reuters analysis of figures from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), a body set up by the African Union in 2017. That compares with averages of 7,650 in Asia and 74,255 in Europe.
“It is difficult to give advice when you only get access to part of the data.”
Michel Yao, head of emergency operations for the WHO in Africa
Shortages of materials, personnel and funding have led many African nations to limit testing. In West Africa, some countries have the laboratory capacity to process 300 tests per day but only have the personnel to handle 100-200 tests, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, a think tank set up by the former British prime minister, told Reuters.
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, has the laboratory capacity to carry out 10,000 tests per day, but insufficient technicians and logistical problems like poor roads make it hard to carry out more than 2,500, the institute said. Olujimi Oyetomi, a Nigerian health ministry spokesman, said the institute’s analysis was out of date and that more testing machines and materials were being deployed. In the week ending July 5, Nigeria ran an average 2,950 tests per day, according to the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.
Tests vs. positive cases
Tests per million
140k
Mauritius
120k
Fewer positive
cases from more tests
100k
80k
Europe average
60k
More positive cases
from fewer tests
Djibouti
Cape Verde
40k
South Africa
Morocco
20k
S. Tome and
Prince
Africa average
Algeria
0
Sudan
Nigeria
Angola
DRC
Tanzania
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40%
Percentage of tests
that are positive cases
Source: United Nations, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
Tests vs. positive cases
Tests per million
140k
Mauritius
120k
Fewer positive
cases from more tests
100k
80k
Europe average
More positive cases
from fewer tests
60k
Djibouti
Cape Verde
40k
Morocco
20k
Eq. Guinea
eSwatini
Africa average
Sao Tome and P.
Egypt
Uganda
Comoros
Algeria
0
Benin
Sudan
Nigeria
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Percentage of tests that are positive cases
Source: United Nations, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
Tests vs. positive cases
Tests per million
140k
Mauritius
120k
Fewer positive
cases from more tests
100k
80k
Europe average
More positive cases
from fewer tests
60k
Djibouti
Cape Verde
40k
Morocco
20k
Eq. Guinea
eSwatini
Africa average
Sao Tome and P.
Egypt
Uganda
Comoros
Algeria
0
Benin
Sudan
Nigeria
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Percentage of tests that are positive cases
Source: United Nations, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
Tests vs. positive cases
Tests per million
140k
Mauritius
120k
Fewer positive
cases from more tests
100k
80k
Europe average
More positive cases
from fewer tests
60k
Djibouti
Cape Verde
40k
South Africa
Morocco
20k
S. Tome and
Prince
Africa average
Algeria
0
Sudan
Nigeria
Angola
DRC
Tanzania
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40%
Percentage of tests
that are positive cases
Source: United Nations, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
It took three months before Democratic Republic of Congo was able to process tests outside the capital Kinshasa, said Steve Ahuka, a member of the country’s COVID-19 response committee, citing a lack of laboratories, equipment and personnel. Even now, shortages of testing materials and transport challenges mean it can take two weeks to get results in some areas, two doctors told Reuters.
Of the continent’s 54 countries, only a handful, including South Africa, Morocco, Djibouti and Ghana, have been able to test widely. “The spread of the virus seems to be outpacing testing,” said Tim Bromfield, the institute's regional director for East and Southern Africa. “So far, there have been low numbers of severe cases. But the risk is that if the number of severe cases increases… African healthcare systems become overwhelmed”.
Surveillance gaps
More testing means more confirmed cases, but the Reuters analysis found that in at least 30 countries the number of positive results is increasing faster than the number of tests carried out. That suggests the virus is spreading faster than it is being tracked, Bromfield said.
How the proportion
of positive cases has changed
July 6
June 6
0
10
20
30
40
50%
S. Tome and P.
Sudan
Algeria
DRC
Comoros
Somalia
Guinea-Bissau
Ivory Coast
Egypt
Nigeria
Chad
South Sudan
Mali
Equatorial Guinea
Guinea
CAR
Cameroon
Sierra Leone
Niger
Liberia
Gabon
Congo
Tanzania
Madagascar
Seychelles
Mauritania
South Africa
Malawi
Burkina Faso
Djibouti
Senegal
Burundi
eSwatini
Ghana
Cape Verde
Benin
Kenya
Namibia
Libya
Mozambique
Zambia
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Togo
Lesotho
Morocco
Gambia
Tunisia
Angola
Zimbabwe
Rwanda
Botswana
Uganda
Mauritius
0
10
20
30
40
50%
Source: Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
How the proportion
of positive cases has changed
July 6
June 6
0
10
20
30
40
50%
Sao Tome and Principe
25.6
39
38.2
Sudan
47
33.4
Algeria
42.2
28.9
Democratic Republic of Congo
24.8
26.5
Comoros
19.4
25.4
Somalia
48.1
21.9
Guinea-Bissau
18.7
21.6
Ivory Coast
11.5
Egypt
19.6
17.6
19
Nigeria
15.8
Chad
18.5
22.8
17.3
South Sudan
23.1
17.2
17.2
Mali
Equatorial Guinea
16.6
15.4
Guinea
16.2
18.3
Central African Republic
15.8
8.3
Cameroon
15.7
23.5
Sierra Leone
15.4
14.4
Niger
15
15.6
14.2
Liberia
14.7
14.2
Gabon
18.5
13.2
Congo
17.4
13.1
Tanzania
19
Madagascar
12
7.2
11.5
Seychelles
1.8
Mauritania
10.9
10.1
South Africa
10.8
4.9
Malawi
10.4
6.5
10.1
Burkina Faso
11.7
Djibouti
10
11.7
Senegal
9.4
7.7
Burundi
7.2
8.2
eSwatini
7.1
4.4
6.5
Ghana
4
Cape Verde
6.3
13.3
5.9
Benin
1.8
4.2
Kenya
2.6
Namibia
3.5
0.5
Libya
3.3
2.6
Mozambique
3
2.6
2.9
Zambia
3.9
Eritrea
2.7
0.9
Ethiopia
2.3
1.3
2.1
Togo
2.2
Lesotho
2
0.3
Morocco
1.9
2.8
1.8
Gambia
1.3
Tunisia
1.7
2
Angola
1.2
0.9
0.9
Zimbabwe
1.2
Rwanda
0.7
0.6
Botswana
0.5
0.2
Uganda
0.5
0.5
0.2
Mauritius
0.3
Source: Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
How the proportion
of positive cases has changed
July 6
June 6
0
10
20
30
40
50%
25.6
39
Sao Tome and Principe
38.2
47
Sudan
33.4
42.2
Algeria
28.9
24.8
Democratic Republic of Congo
26.5
19.4
Comoros
25.4
48.1
Somalia
21.9
18.7
Guinea-Bissau
21.6
11.5
Ivory Coast
19.6
17.6
Egypt
19
15.8
Nigeria
18.5
22.8
Chad
17.3
23.1
South Sudan
17.2
17.2
Mali
16.6
15.4
Equatorial Guinea
16.2
18.3
Guinea
15.8
8.3
Central African Republic
15.7
23.5
Cameroon
15.4
14.4
Sierra Leone
15
15.6
Niger
14.2
14.7
Liberia
14.2
18.5
Gabon
13.2
17.4
Congo
13.1
19
Tanzania
12
7.2
Madagascar
11.5
1.8
Seychelles
10.9
10.1
Mauritania
10.8
4.9
South Africa
10.4
6.5
Malawi
10.1
11.7
Burkina Faso
10
11.7
Djibouti
9.4
7.7
Senegal
7.2
8.2
Burundi
7.1
4.4
eSwatini
6.5
4
Ghana
6.3
13.3
Cape Verde
5.9
1.8
Benin
4.2
2.6
Kenya
3.5
0.5
Namibia
3.3
2.6
Libya
3
2.6
Mozambique
2.9
3.9
Zambia
2.7
0.9
Eritrea
2.3
1.3
Ethiopia
2.1
2.2
Togo
2
0.3
Lesotho
1.9
2.8
Morocco
1.8
1.3
Gambia
1.7
2
Tunisia
1.2
0.9
Angola
0.9
1.2
Zimbabwe
0.7
0.6
Rwanda
0.5
0.2
Botswana
0.5
0.5
Uganda
0.2
0.3
Mauritius
Source: Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
How the proportion
of positive cases has changed
July 6
June 6
0
10
20
30
40
50%
S. Tome and P.
Sudan
Algeria
DRC
Comoros
Somalia
Guinea-Bissau
Ivory Coast
Egypt
Nigeria
Chad
South Sudan
Mali
Equatorial Guinea
Guinea
CAR
Cameroon
Sierra Leone
Niger
Liberia
Gabon
Congo
Tanzania
Madagascar
Seychelles
Mauritania
South Africa
Malawi
Burkina Faso
Djibouti
Senegal
Burundi
eSwatini
Ghana
Cape Verde
Benin
Kenya
Namibia
Libya
Mozambique
Zambia
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Togo
Lesotho
Morocco
Gambia
Tunisia
Angola
Zimbabwe
Rwanda
Botswana
Uganda
Mauritius
0
10
20
30
40
50%
Source: Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
Sharing information is vital to tackling the pandemic in Africa – both for planning the response and mobilising donor funding. But some governments are reluctant to acknowledge growing epidemics or to expose their crumbling health systems to outside scrutiny. Other nations simply cannot carry out significant testing because they are so ravaged by poverty and conflict.
“Even at the best of times, collecting quality data from countries is not easy because people are stretched thin,” said John Nkengasong, director of the Africa CDC. “Combine that with an emergency, and it becomes very, very difficult.”
Tanzania’s failure to share information about its outbreak has frustrated neighbours, who fear that gains won through painful lockdowns in their own countries could be jeopardized as Tanzanians cross porous borders. The East African country has not published nationwide figures about its epidemic since May 8, when it had recorded 509 cases and 21 deaths. Tanzania’s health minister and government spokesman did not return messages seeking comment.
“It is difficult to give advice when you only get access to part of the data,” said Michel Yao, head of emergency operations for the WHO in Africa. “We cannot help a country against its own will.”
The search for other measures
In the absence of reliable testing data, researchers are looking to other yardsticks to judge the prevalence of the coronavirus.
Comparing countries
One imperfect method to evaluate what is happening in countries where information is scarce is to compare it with what is happening just across the border, in nations that are more transparent.
Until this month, Burundi permitted large sporting events and held mass rallies for its May elections. The tiny East African nation has carried out only 2,359 tests and confirmed 191 cases of COVID-19 in a country of 12 million people. Its population is just a million less than neighbour Rwanda, which enforced a strict lockdown for six weeks and is gradually easing it. Rwanda has carried out 163,384 tests and confirmed 1,113 cases.
2,359 tests
163,384 tests
11.9 million
population
12.9 million
population
Burundi
191 cases from 2,359 tests
Former President Pierre Nkurunziza implemented few coronavirus restrictions. Election rallies drew tens of thousands in the run-up to a May 20 poll, and the government expelled the WHO representative and three colleagues.
Rwanda
1,113 cases from 163,384 tests
On March 22, Rwanda imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in Africa. Borders were closed except for returning citizens, who had to go into quarantine for 14 days. Movement was restricted, and police flew drones fitted with megaphones to enforce the rules.
13,602 tests
78,371 tests
20.2 million
population
16.7 million
population
Mali
2,331 cases from 13,602 tests
Anti-government protests have drawn tens of thousands into the streets in Mali, which is also battling Islamist militants across much of the country. It has carried out little testing outside the capital.
Senegal
7,478 cases from 78,371 tests
Senegal closed its border, banned public gatherings and imposed a curfew in March. It has begun easing restrictions and plans to restart international flights in July.
3,880 tests
191,394 tests
59.7 million
population
53.7 million
population
Tanzania
509 cases from 3,880 tests
Tanzania was slow to restrict travel and impose social distancing rules. President John Magufuli dismissed imported testing kits as faulty, saying they had also returned positive results on samples taken from a goat and a pawpaw fruit.
Kenya
8,067 cases from 191,394 tests
Kenya has been locked down since mid-March. International travel is barred except for returning citizens; schools are closed until January; people are encouraged to work from home; an overnight curfew is in force.
Source: United Nations, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
2,359 tests
163,384 tests
11.9 million
population
12.9 million
population
Burundi
191 cases from 2,359 tests
Former President Pierre Nkurunziza implemented few coronavirus restrictions. Election rallies drew tens of thousands in the run-up to a May 20 poll, and the government expelled the WHO representative and three colleagues.
Rwanda
1,113 cases from 163,384 tests
On March 22, Rwanda imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in Africa. Borders were closed except for returning citizens, who had to go into quarantine for 14 days. Movement was restricted, and police flew drones fitted with megaphones to enforce the rules.
13,602 tests
78,371 tests
20.2 million
population
16.7 million
population
Mali
2,331 cases from 13,602 tests
Anti-government protests have drawn tens of thousands into the streets in Mali, which is also battling Islamist militants across much of the country. It has carried out little testing outside the capital.
Senegal
7,478 cases from 78,371 tests
Senegal closed its border, banned public gatherings and imposed a curfew in March. It has begun easing restrictions and plans to restart international flights in July.
3,880 tests
191,394 tests
59.7 million
population
53.7 million
population
Tanzania
509 cases from 3,880 tests
Tanzania was slow to restrict travel and impose social distancing rules. President John Magufuli dismissed imported testing kits as faulty, saying they had also returned positive results on samples taken from a goat and a pawpaw fruit.
Kenya
8,067 cases from 191,394 tests
Kenya has been locked down since mid-March. International travel is barred except for returning citizens; schools are closed until January; people are encouraged to work from home; an overnight curfew is in force.
Source: United Nations, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
2,359 tests
163,384 tests
11.9 million
population
12.9 million
population
Burundi
191 cases from 2,359 tests
Former President Pierre Nkurunziza implemented few coronavirus restrictions. Election rallies drew tens of thousands in the run-up to a May 20 poll, and the government expelled the WHO representative and three colleagues.
Rwanda
1,113 cases from 163,384 tests
On March 22, Rwanda imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in Africa. Borders were closed except for returning citizens, who had to go into quarantine for 14 days. Movement was restricted, and police flew drones fitted with megaphones to enforce the rules.
13,602 tests
78,371 tests
20.2 million
population
16.7 million
population
Mali
2,331 cases from 13,602 tests
Anti-government protests have drawn tens of thousands into the streets in Mali, which is also battling Islamist militants across much of the country. It has carried out little testing outside the capital.
Senegal
7,478 cases from 78,371 tests
Senegal closed its border, banned public gatherings and imposed a curfew in March. It has begun easing restrictions and plans to restart international flights in July.
3,880 tests
191,394 tests
59.7 million
population
53.7 million
population
Tanzania
509 cases from 3,880 tests
Tanzania was slow to restrict travel and impose social distancing rules. President John Magufuli dismissed imported testing kits as faulty, saying they had also returned positive results on samples taken from a goat and a pawpaw fruit.
Kenya
8,067 cases from 191,394 tests
Kenya has been locked down since mid-March. International travel is barred except for returning citizens; schools are closed until January; people are encouraged to work from home; an overnight curfew is in force.
Source: United Nations, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
Burundi
191 cases from 2,359 tests
Former President Pierre Nkurunziza implemented few coronavirus restrictions. Election rallies drew tens of thousands in the run-up to a May 20 poll, and the government expelled the WHO representative and three colleagues.
2,359 tests
11.9 million
population
163,384 tests
12.9 million
population
Rwanda
1,113 cases from
163,384 tests
On March 22, Rwanda imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in Africa. Borders were closed except for returning citizens, who had to go into quarantine for 14 days. Movement was restricted, and police flew drones fitted with megaphones to enforce the rules.
Mali
2,331 cases from 13,602 tests
Anti-government protests have drawn tens of thousands into the streets in Mali, which is also battling Islamist militants across much of the country. It has carried out little testing outside the capital.
13,602 tests
20.2 million
population
78,371 tests
16.7 million
population
Senegal
7,478 cases
from 78,371 tests
Senegal closed its border, banned public gatherings and imposed a curfew in March. It has begun easing restrictions and plans to restart international flights in July.
3,880 tests
59.7 million
population
191,394 tests
Tanzania
509 cases from 3,880 tests
Tanzania was slow to restrict travel and impose social distancing rules. President John Magufuli dismissed imported testing kits as faulty, saying they had also returned positive results on samples taken from a goat and a pawpaw fruit.
53.7 million
population
Kenya
8,067 cases from
191,394 tests
Kenya has been locked down since mid-March. International travel is barred except for returning citizens; schools are closed until January; people are encouraged to work from home; an overnight curfew is in force.
Source: United Nations, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
Excess deaths
In other parts of the world, researchers have tried to gauge the impact of the virus by reviewing the number of deaths that exceed the average for the time of year.
But that is not possible in most of Africa, because data from previous years is lacking. Only eight countries - Algeria, Cape Verde, Djibouti, Egypt, Mauritius, Namibia, Seychelles, and South Africa - register more than 75% of deaths, according to the United Nations. Ghana registers 25% and Niger less than 4%.
“Without clarity on data, it is very hard to justify the economic pain that shutting down countries causes.”
Amanda McClelland, senior vice president at Resolve to Save Lives
Some nations, including Rwanda, Senegal and Ethiopia, are setting up programs to monitor graveyards to try to detect spikes in burials. They are interviewing gravediggers and community leaders to establish the usual average.
Coverage of death
registration
<90%
100
75
50
25
0%
No data
Source: United Nations
Coverage of death
registration
100
75
50
25
0%
No data
Less than 90%
Source: United Nations
Coverage of death
registration
Less than 90%
100
75
50
25
0%
No data
Source: United Nations
Coverage of death
registration
100
75
50
25
0%
<90%
No data
Source: United Nations
Unless governments know how severe an outbreak is and what resources are available to deal with it, nations risk lifting lockdowns too soon or maintaining them too long, said Amanda McClelland, of the U.S.-based health policy initiative Resolve to Save Lives. “Without clarity on data, it is very hard to justify the economic pain that shutting down countries causes,” she told Reuters.
Counting Google searches
Patrick Berlinquette, a researcher based in New York, is scrutinising Google searches to track health trends, a method he used on a study with Stanford University academics on suicide prevention. This year he started tracking outbreaks of COVID-19 in cities across the United States by tracking the number of people who search for “Why can’t I smell?” – a frequent symptom of the disease. His data for U.S. cities suggests a relationship between searches and case numbers.
Using Google searches in Tanzania as an indicator of COVID-19
Google searches for “Why I can't smell”, a frequent symptom, could be an indicator of COVID-19 spread.
Peak on May 13
with 200 searches
200
Most searches in
Dar es Salaam
150
100
81
72
66
67
61
50
0
May 8
May 13
May 22
May 30
June 7
June 12
June 22
June 29
Sources: Patrick Berlinquette, Google
Using Google searches in Tanzania as an indicator of COVID-19
Google searches for “Why I can't smell”, a frequent symptom, could be an indicator of COVID-19 spread.
Peak on May 13
with 200 searches
200
Most searches in
Dar es Salaam
150
100
81
72
66
67
61
50
0
May 8
May 13
May 22
May 30
June 7
June 12
June 22
June 29
Sources: Patrick Berlinquette, Google
Using Google searches in Tanzania as an indicator of COVID-19
Google searches for “Why I can't smell”, a frequent symptom, could be an indicator of COVID-19 spread.
Peak on May 13
with 200 searches
200
Most searches in
Dar es Salaam
150
100
81
72
66
67
61
50
0
May 8
May 13
May 22
May 30
June 7
June 12
June 22
June 29
Sources: Patrick Berlinquette, Google
Using Google searches in Tanzania
as an indicator of COVID-19
Google searches for “Why I can't smell”, a frequent symptom, could be an indicator of COVID-19 spread.
Peak on May 13
with 200 searches
200
150
100
81
72
66
67
61
50
0
May 13
June 29
Sources: Patrick Berlinquette, Google
The method is not ideal for a country like Tanzania, where many people don’t have smartphones, and where Google only tracks searches in English, not Kiswahili, the language used by most nationals. Berlinquette only began tracking searches in Tanzania in May, but his data shows a spike in the number of searches for those symptoms in the first half of the month.
On May 13, the U.S. Embassy warned its citizens that hospitals in the main city Dar es Salaam were “overwhelmed”, an assertion denied by Tanzania’s government. But infections may have been escalating even earlier. Two doctors in Tanzania told Reuters they had seen spikes in patients with coronavirus-like symptoms in late March and April, when there weren’t enough beds at some facilities to treat all of them. Tanzania’s health minister and government spokesman did not return messages seeking comment.
Additional reporting by Paul Carsten and Camillus Eboh in Abuja, Hereward Holland in Calstock, England, Ryan McNeill in London, Giulia Paravicini in Addis Ababa, and Alexander Winning in Johannesburg.
Graphic by Samuel Granados
Edited by Alexandra Zavis, Jon McClure and Crispian Balmer
Sources: Reuters reporting; Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention; World Health Organisation; Tony Blair Institute for Global Change; Resolve to Save Lives, an initiative of Vital Strategies.