Since the $4 billion project was announced in early 2011, two downstream countries – Egypt and Sudan
– have expressed concern that the dam, Africa’s largest, could reduce the flow of water in the Nile
river.
Ethiopia has pinned its hopes for power generation and economic development on its Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam (GERD), which will require enormous amounts of water to fill and operate. The dam is
hugely popular with many Ethiopians, and in June Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed addressed his main
election rally to chants of "build the dam".
Since November 2020, Ethiopia’s government has been fighting a war in its northern Tigray region,
which shares a border with Sudan. During the conflict, tensions between Addis Ababa and Khartoum
have flared up, including over a decades-old border dispute.
More than 25 dams in the Nile River Basin
Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam
More than 25 dams in the Nile River Basin
Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam
More than 25 dams in the Nile River Basin
Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam
The dispute over water rights has highlighted concerns over individual nations’ rights to water and
points to a shift in political power on the continent. Looming large are worries over climate change
and increasing strains on the Nile.
Here are the issues at stake in talks that have so far been unable to produce an agreement, despite
help being sought from outside mediators from the African Union, United States and European Union.
Water worries downstream
The Nile, the longest river in the world, passes through 11 countries before reaching the
Mediterranean Sea. Despite its expansive reach, more than 70% of the natural water flow comes from
Ethiopia as a result of seasonal rains.
Inflows of water in the Nile river
Inflows of water in the Nile river
Inflows of water in the Nile river
Decisions over allocation of the Nile’s water date back to colonial-era treaties.
In 1929, an agreement between Egypt and Britain, which was representing its colonies in the Nile
River Basin, allocated water to Egypt and Sudan.
Allocation of the Nile’s water
Billion m³ per year (1959 agreement)
D.R. Congo
South Sudan*
Tanzania
Ethiopia
Uganda
Burundi
Rwanda
Kenya
Eritrea
Note: Total yield of the Nile is estimated at 84 billion m³ per
year, including 10 billion m³ for water lost due to over-year storage. *South Sudan
gained independence from Sudan in 2011.
Allocation of the Nile’s water
Billion m³ per year (1959 agreement)
D.R. Congo
South Sudan*
Tanzania
Ethiopia
Uganda
Burundi
Rwanda
Kenya
Eritrea
Note: Total yield of the Nile is estimated at 84 billion m³ per
year, including 10 billion m³ for water lost due to over-year storage. *South Sudan
gained independence from Sudan in 2011.
Allocation of the Nile’s water
Billion m³ per year (1959 agreement)
D.R. Congo
South Sudan*
Tanzania
Ethiopia
Uganda
Burundi
Rwanda
Kenya
Eritrea
Note: Total yield of the Nile is estimated at 84 billion m³ per
year, including 10 billion m³ for water lost due to over-year storage. *South Sudan
gained independence from Sudan in 2011.
The agreement was updated in 1959, but other countries were not given allocations at that time.
Ethiopia was not a party to the agreement and does not recognize it.
Data from the United Nations shows that Egypt and Sudan require the most water from the Nile. Without
factoring in the needs of the GERD, strains on the river's limited water flow are expected to
increase dramatically by 2050 across the region.
Projections of irrigation water requirements in the Nile
Basin
Projections of irrigation water requirements in the Nile
Basin
Projections of irrigation water
requirements in the Nile basin
Projections of irrigation water requirements in the Nile
Basin
Projections of irrigation water requirements in the Nile
Basin
There's much at stake for Egypt in any new agreement. The largely desert nation’s population of
some 100 million people relies on the Nile for more than 90% of its fresh water. It imports about
half of its food products and recycles about 25 bcm of water annually.
Egypt accuses Ethiopia of not factoring in the risk of droughts, which affected the Nile Basin in the
late 1970s and early 1980s.
Nile Basin countries want an agreement that addresses current and future water needs, and provides a
mechanism for dispute resolution. They've been unable to reach a deal.
The local impact of the dam
Last year, Ethiopia started the process of filling the reservoir behind the dam, which is still under
construction but nearing completion. On July 19, Ethiopia filled the reservoir for a second year in
a row and said the plant may start generating power in the next few months.
While the reservoir could be completely filled in two to three years, Ethiopia says it made a
concession by proposing a four- to seven-year process.
The reservoir is expected to hold about 66 bcm of water, according to an estimate published by
Egypt's National Research Centre. Such a large volume of water raises security concerns for the
dam and questions about what happens if an issue causes the downstream region to flood.
Ethiopia has banned all flights over the area for security reasons and says that it is fully prepared
to defend the dam from any attack.
It’s about power
A satellite image of the Earth at night shows huge swaths of central Africa mostly in the dark, and
the continent’s key power emitters at the northern and southern extremes.
About 7 out of every 10 Ethiopians are not connected to the power grid, making it one of the world’s
least connected countries.
A power exporter
The dam, with a projected capacity of more than 6,000 megawatts, is the centerpiece of Ethiopia’s bid
to become Africa’s biggest power exporter. Electricity generated will eventually flow to some of the
world's poorest countries.
Water highway, power corridor
A North-South power transmission corridor made up of an 8,000 km
line will stretch from Egypt through Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi,
Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to South Africa to transport energy generated by the
GERD.
The corridor will provide the infrastructure for an integrated
East and Southern African power market, which will allow increased regional power trade.
Strategic connections between different power pools will reduce
the need for reserve capacities, resulting in lower energy costs.
With the help of Britain, Egypt was the first country in the Nile
basin to design barriers across the river to control flooding and generate power.
Soviet loans and proceeds from Suez Canal tolls allowed former
Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser to begin work on the Aswan High Dam in 1960.
Heavy loan burdens and the control over local resources
With the help of China and Arab funds, Sudan has developed some of
the most important hydropower projects in the region.
While the World Bank remains one of the main creditors for some
African countries, the emergence of economic powers such as China in the region raises
questions about outside influence in the region.
For example, the Asian giant has emerged as a major source of
cheap credit for Uganda, funnelling huge amounts of loans into hydropower dams, highways
and fiber optic cables.
No local grid, international power hub
The GERD will allow Ethiopia to become a power hub for the region,
but the high political, economical and environmental impact has made fundraising
difficult.
Today, Ethiopia exports electricity to Sudan and Djibouti, and is
building a series of transmission lines that will allow it to connect with the rest of
the countries of the East African pool.
Water highway,
power corridor
A North-South power transmission corridor made up of an 8,000 km
line will stretch from Egypt through Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi,
Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to South Africa to transport energy generated by the
GERD.
The corridor will provide the infrastructure for an integrated
East and Southern African power market, which will allow increased regional power trade.
With the help of Britain, Egypt was the first country in the Nile
basin to design barriers across the river to control flooding and generate power.
Soviet loans and proceeds from Suez Canal tolls allowed former
Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser to begin work on the Aswan High Dam in 1960.
With the help of China and Arab funds, Sudan has developed some of
the most important hydropower projects in the region.
Strategic connections between different power pools will reduce
the need for reserve capacities, resulting in lower energy costs.
No local grid,
international power hub
The GERD will allow Ethiopia to become a power hub for the region,
but the high political, economical and environmental impact has made fundraising
difficult.
Today, Ethiopia exports electricity to Sudan and Djibouti, and is
building a series of transmission lines that will allow it to connect with the rest of
the countries of the East African pool.
Heavy loan burdens
and the control over local resoiurces
While the World Bank remains one of the main creditors for some
African countries, the emergence of economic powers such as China in the region raises
questions about outside influence in the region.
For example, the Asian giant has emerged as a major source of
cheap credit for Uganda, funnelling huge amounts of loans into hydropower dams, highways
and fiber optic cables.
Water highway, power corridor
A North-South power transmission Corridor will be a 8 000
kilometre line stretching from Egypt through Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya,
Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to South Africa to transport energy generated by
the Great Renaissance Dam.
The corridor will be connecting the East African and Southern
African Power Pools.
Strategic connections between different power pools will
reduce the need for reserve capacities, resulting in lower energy costs.
With the help of Britain, Egypt was the first country in
the Nile basin to design barriers across the river to control flooding and generate
power.
Soviet loans and proceeds from Suez Canal tolls allowed
former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser to begin work on the Aswan High Dam in
1960.
Heavy loan burdens
and the control
over local resources
While the World Bank remains one of the main creditors for some
African countries, the emergence of economic powers such as China in the region raises
questions about outside influence in the region.
For example, the Asian giant has emerged as a major source of
cheap credit for Uganda, funnelling huge amounts of loans into hydropower dams, highways
and fiber optic cables.
No local grid, international power hub
The GERD will allow Ethiopia to become a power hub for the region,
but the high political, economical and environmental impact has made fundraising
difficult.
Today, Ethiopia exports electricity to Sudan and Djibouti, and is
building a series of transmission lines that will allow it to connect with the rest of
the countries of the East African pool.
Water highway, power corridor
A North-South power transmission corridor made up of an 8,000 km
line will stretch from Egypt through Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi,
Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to South Africa to transport energy generated by the
GERD.
The corridor will provide the infrastructure for an integrated
East and Southern African power market, which will allow increased regional power trade.
Strategic connections between different power pools will reduce
the need for reserve capacities, resulting in lower energy costs.
With the help of Britain, Egypt was the first country in the Nile
basin to design barriers across the river to control flooding and generate power.
Soviet loans and proceeds from Suez Canal tolls allowed former
Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser to begin work on the Aswan High Dam in 1960.
Heavy loan burdens and the control over local resources
With the help of China and Arab funds, Sudan has developed some of
the most important hydropower projects in the region.
While the World Bank remains one of the main creditors for some
African countries, the emergence of economic powers such as China in the region raises
questions about outside influence in the region.
For example, the Asian giant has emerged as a major source of
cheap credit for Uganda, funnelling huge amounts of loans into hydropower dams, highways
and fiber optic cables.
No local grid, international power hub
The GERD will allow Ethiopia to become a power hub for the region,
but the high political, economical and environmental impact has made fundraising
difficult.
Today, Ethiopia exports electricity to Sudan and Djibouti, and is
building a series of transmission lines that will allow it to connect with the rest of
the countries of the East African pool.
Water highway,
power corridor
A North-South power transmission corridor made up of an 8,000 km
line will stretch from Egypt through Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi,
Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to South Africa to transport energy generated by the
GERD.
The corridor will provide the infrastructure for an integrated
East and Southern African power market, which will allow increased regional power trade.
With the help of Britain, Egypt was the first country in the Nile
basin to design barriers across the river to control flooding and generate power.
Soviet loans and proceeds from Suez Canal tolls allowed former
Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser to begin work on the Aswan High Dam in 1960.
With the help of China and Arab funds, Sudan has developed some of
the most important hydropower projects in the region.
Strategic connections between different power pools will reduce
the need for reserve capacities, resulting in lower energy costs.
No local grid,
international power hub
The GERD will allow Ethiopia to become a power hub for the region,
but the high political, economical and environmental impact has made fundraising
difficult.
Today, Ethiopia exports electricity to Sudan and Djibouti, and is
building a series of transmission lines that will allow it to connect with the rest of
the countries of the East African pool.
Heavy loan burdens
and the control over local resources
While the World Bank remains one of the main creditors for some
African countries, the emergence of economic powers such as China in the region raises
questions about outside influence in the region.
For example, the Asian giant has emerged as a major source of
cheap credit for Uganda, funnelling huge amounts of loans into hydropower dams, highways
and fiber optic cables.
Ethiopia is hoping that greater electricity production will bring with it prosperity. Meanwhile,
other East African countries have an eye on the dam’s lasting political, economic and environmental
impact in the region.
Sources
Reuters reporting.
Hydropower projects from Nile Basin Initiative
Irrigation projections for the Nile Basin countries from the United Nations
Satellite image of the GERD from Maxar Technologies ©2021
Satellite image of Earth at night, 2016, from NASA
Nile River inflows from UNESCO
Scenarios of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Altitude and Relevant Reservoir by Using DEM and 3D
Analysis from R.R. Ali in the Middle East Journal of Applied Sciences
Edited by
Katharine Houreld and Mike Collett-White