A satellite image from May shows the reservior for the Grand Ethiopian Rennissance Dam (GERD) after an initial filling last year during the rainy season.

About 2 km

Spillway

2 Power stations

with 16 turbines able

to produce 15GWh

per year.

Spillway

15,000 m3/s

A satellite image from May shows the reservior for the Grand Ethiopian Rennissance Dam (GERD) after an initial filling last year during the rainy season.

About 2 km

Spillway

2 Power stations

with 16 turbines able

to produce 15GWh

per year.

Spillway

A satellite image from May shows the reservior for the Grand Ethiopian Rennissance Dam (GERD) after an initial filling last year during the rainy season.

About 2 km

Spillway

2 Power stations

with 16 turbines able

to produce 15GWh

per year.

Spillway

A satellite image from May shows the reservior for the Grand Ethiopian Rennissance Dam (GERD) after an initial filling last year during the rainy season.

About 2 km

Spillway

2 Power stations

with 16 turbines able

to produce 15GWh

per year.

Spillway

15,000 m3/s

A satellite image from May shows the reservior for the Grand Ethiopian Rennissance Dam (GERD) after an initial filling last year during the rainy season.

About 1.1 miles

Spillway

2 Power stations

with 16 turbines able

to produce 15GWh

per year.

Spillway

Maxar Technologies ©2021

Power struggle

Ethiopia continues to fill the reservoir for its giant dam on the Blue Nile and hopes to generate electricity later this year. The dam will eventually bring power to a region mostly in the dark, but up until now it has sparked a bitter dispute over water rights

Since the $4 billion project was announced in early 2011, two downstream countries – Egypt and Sudan – have expressed concern that the dam, Africa’s largest, could reduce the flow of water in the Nile river.

Ethiopia has pinned its hopes for power generation and economic development on its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which will require enormous amounts of water to fill and operate. The dam is hugely popular with many Ethiopians, and in June Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed addressed his main election rally to chants of "build the dam".

Since November 2020, Ethiopia’s government has been fighting a war in its northern Tigray region, which shares a border with Sudan. During the conflict, tensions between Addis Ababa and Khartoum have flared up, including over a decades-old border dispute.

Mediterranean Sea

More than 25 dams in the Nile River Basin

EGYPT

Red Sea

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

S. SUDAN

Grand Ethiopian

Renaissance Dam

KENYA

UGANDA

RWANDA

BURUNDI

D. R. CONGO

250 mi.

TANZANIA

Mediterranean Sea

More than 25 dams in the Nile River Basin

EGYPT

Red Sea

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

S. SUDAN

Grand Ethiopian

Renaissance Dam

KENYA

UGANDA

RWANDA

BURUNDI

D. R. CONGO

TANZANIA

250 mi.

Mediterranean Sea

More than 25 dams in the Nile River Basin

EGYPT

Red Sea

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

S. SUDAN

Grand Ethiopian

Renaissance Dam

KENYA

UGANDA

RWANDA

BURUNDI

D. R. CONGO

TANZANIA

250 mi.

The dispute over water rights has highlighted concerns over individual nations’ rights to water and points to a shift in political power on the continent. Looming large are worries over climate change and increasing strains on the Nile.

Here are the issues at stake in talks that have so far been unable to produce an agreement, despite help being sought from outside mediators from the African Union, United States and European Union.

Water worries downstream

The Nile, the longest river in the world, passes through 11 countries before reaching the Mediterranean Sea. Despite its expansive reach, more than 70% of the natural water flow comes from Ethiopia as a result of seasonal rains.

Inflows of water in the Nile river

EGYPT

Nile river

SUDAN

Atbara

river

14%

Blue Nile river

56%

SOUTH SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

UGANDA

DRC

White Nile river

30%

RWANDA

BURUNDI

TANZANIA

Inflows of water in the Nile river

EGYPT

Nile river

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

Atbara river

14%

SOUTH SUDAN

Blue Nile river

56%

UGANDA

DRC

White Nile river

30%

RWANDA

BURUNDI

TANZANIA

Inflows of water in the Nile river

EGYPT

Nile river

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

Atbara river

14%

SOUTH SUDAN

Blue Nile river

56%

UGANDA

DRC

White Nile river

30%

RWANDA

BURUNDI

TANZANIA

Decisions over allocation of the Nile’s water date back to colonial-era treaties.

In 1929, an agreement between Egypt and Britain, which was representing its colonies in the Nile River Basin, allocated water to Egypt and Sudan.

Allocation of the Nile’s water

Billion m³ per year (1959 agreement)

100% allocation

No allocation

D.R. Congo

South Sudan*

Tanzania

Ethiopia

Uganda

Burundi

Rwanda

Kenya

Eritrea

Egypt

55.5 Billion m³

Sudan

18.5 Billion m³

Note: Total yield of the Nile is estimated at 84 billion m³ per year, including 10 billion m³ for water lost due to over-year storage. *South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011.

Allocation of the Nile’s water

Billion m³ per year (1959 agreement)

100% allocation

No allocation

D.R. Congo

South Sudan*

Tanzania

Ethiopia

Uganda

Burundi

Rwanda

Kenya

Eritrea

Egypt

55.5 Billion m³

Sudan

18.5 Billion m³

Note: Total yield of the Nile is estimated at 84 billion m³ per year, including 10 billion m³ for water lost due to over-year storage. *South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011.

Allocation of the Nile’s water

Billion m³ per year (1959 agreement)

100% allocation

No allocation

D.R. Congo

South Sudan*

Tanzania

Ethiopia

Uganda

Burundi

Rwanda

Kenya

Eritrea

Egypt

55.5 Billion m³

Sudan

18.5 Billion m³

Note: Total yield of the Nile is estimated at 84 billion m³ per year, including 10 billion m³ for water lost due to over-year storage. *South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011.

The agreement was updated in 1959, but other countries were not given allocations at that time. Ethiopia was not a party to the agreement and does not recognize it.

Data from the United Nations shows that Egypt and Sudan require the most water from the Nile. Without factoring in the needs of the GERD, strains on the river's limited water flow are expected to increase dramatically by 2050 across the region.

Projections of irrigation water requirements in the Nile Basin

2005

2030

2050

+224.8%

+124.2%

+75.8%

+25.9%

+7%

0.829 km3

0.483 km3

27,511 km3

1.076 km3

68,795 km3

UGANDA

ETHIOPIA

EGYPT

SUDAN

KENYA

+172.9%

+133%

+94.5%

+41%

0.317 km3

0.127 km3

0.048 km3

0.003 km3

RWANDA

ERITREA

BURUNDI

TANZANIA

Projections of irrigation water requirements in the Nile Basin

2005

2030

2050

+224.8%

+172.9%

+124.2%

+133%

+94.5%

+75.8%

+41%

+25.9%

+7%

27,511 km3

1.076 km3

0.829 km3

0.483 km3

0.317 km3

0.127 km3

0.048 km3

0.003 km3

68,795 km3

EGYPT

SUDAN

KENYA

UGANDA

ETHIOPIA

RWANDA

ERITREA

BURUNDI

TANZANIA

Projections of irrigation water

requirements in the Nile basin

2005

2030

2050

+75.8%

+25.9%

+7%

27,511 km3

1.076 km3

68,795 km3

EGYPT

SUDAN

KENYA

+224.8%

+124.2%

+41%

0.829 km3

0.483 km3

0.317 km3

UGANDA

ETHIOPIA

RWANDA

+172.9%

+133%

+94.5%

0.127 km3

0.048 km3

0.003 km3

ERITREA

BURUNDI

TANZANIA

Projections of irrigation water requirements in the Nile Basin

2005

2030

2050

+75.8%

+25.9%

+7%

27,511 km3

1.076 km3

68,795 km3

EGYPT

SUDAN

KENYA

+224.8%

+124.2%

+41%

0.829 km3

0.483 km3

0.317 km3

UGANDA

ETHIOPIA

RWANDA

+172.9%

+133%

+94.5%

0.127 km3

0.048 km3

0.003 km3

ERITREA

BURUNDI

TANZANIA

Projections of irrigation water requirements in the Nile Basin

2005

2030

2050

+224.8%

+172.9%

+124.2%

+133%

+94.5%

+75.8%

+41%

+25.9%

+7%

27,511 km3

1.076 km3

0.829 km3

0.483 km3

0.317 km3

0.127 km3

0.048 km3

0.003 km3

68,795 km3

EGYPT

SUDAN

KENYA

UGANDA

ETHIOPIA

RWANDA

ERITREA

BURUNDI

TANZANIA

There's much at stake for Egypt in any new agreement. The largely desert nation’s population of some 100 million people relies on the Nile for more than 90% of its fresh water. It imports about half of its food products and recycles about 25 bcm of water annually.

Egypt accuses Ethiopia of not factoring in the risk of droughts, which affected the Nile Basin in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

Nile Basin countries want an agreement that addresses current and future water needs, and provides a mechanism for dispute resolution. They've been unable to reach a deal.

The local impact of the dam

Last year, Ethiopia started the process of filling the reservoir behind the dam, which is still under construction but nearing completion. On July 19, Ethiopia filled the reservoir for a second year in a row and said the plant may start generating power in the next few months.

While the reservoir could be completely filled in two to three years, Ethiopia says it made a concession by proposing a four- to seven-year process.

The reservoir is expected to hold about 66 bcm of water, according to an estimate published by Egypt's National Research Centre. Such a large volume of water raises security concerns for the dam and questions about what happens if an issue causes the downstream region to flood.

Ethiopia has banned all flights over the area for security reasons and says that it is fully prepared to defend the dam from any attack.

It’s about power

A satellite image of the Earth at night shows huge swaths of central Africa mostly in the dark, and the continent’s key power emitters at the northern and southern extremes.

About 7 out of every 10 Ethiopians are not connected to the power grid, making it one of the world’s least connected countries.

Cairo

Egypt

Sudan

Juba

GERD

Addis Ababa

S. Sudan

Ethiopia

D. R. Congo

Uganda

Rwanda

Kenya

Burundi

TANZANIA

Harare

Pretoria

Johannesburg

Cairo

Egypt

Sudan

Juba

GERD

Addis Ababa

S. Sudan

Ethiopia

D. R. Congo

Uganda

Rwanda

Kenya

Burundi

TANZANIA

Harare

Pretoria

Johannesburg

Cairo

Egypt

Sudan

Juba

GERD

Addis Ababa

S. Sudan

Ethiopia

Uganda

D. R. Congo

Kenya

Rwanda

Burundi

TANZANIA

Harare

Pretoria

Johannesburg

Cairo

Egypt

Sudan

Juba

GERD

Addis Ababa

S. Sudan

Ethiopia

Uganda

D. R. Congo

Kenya

Rwanda

Burundi

TANZANIA

Harare

Pretoria

Johannesburg

Cairo

Egypt

Sudan

Juba

GERD

Addis Ababa

S. Sudan

Ethiopia

Uganda

D. R. Congo

Kenya

Rwanda

Burundi

TANZANIA

Harare

Pretoria

Johannesburg

A power exporter

The dam, with a projected capacity of more than 6,000 megawatts, is the centerpiece of Ethiopia’s bid to become Africa’s biggest power exporter. Electricity generated will eventually flow to some of the world's poorest countries.

Water highway, power corridor

A North-South power transmission corridor made up of an 8,000 km line will stretch from Egypt through Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to South Africa to transport energy generated by the GERD.

 

The corridor will provide the infrastructure for an integrated East and Southern African power market, which will allow increased regional power trade.

EGYPT

To Libya

To Jordan

To Saudi

Arabia

Key linkages

Strategic connections between different power pools will reduce the need for reserve capacities, resulting in lower energy costs.

International funding

With the help of Britain, Egypt was the first country in the Nile basin to design barriers across the river to control flooding and generate power.

 

Soviet loans and proceeds from Suez Canal tolls allowed former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser to begin work on the Aswan High Dam in 1960.

Assiut

Nag-Hamady

Esna

Assiut Barriage

Old Aswan

High Aswan

SUDAN

Heavy loan burdens and the control over local resources

CHINA AND ARAB FUNDS

With the help of China and Arab funds, Sudan has developed some of the most important hydropower projects in the region.

While the World Bank remains one of the main creditors for some African countries, the emergence of economic powers such as China in the region raises questions about outside influence in the region.

 

For example, the Asian giant has emerged as a major source of cheap credit for Uganda, funnelling huge amounts of loans into hydropower dams, highways and fiber optic cables.

Merowe

Jebel Aulia

Senner

Khashm el Gibra

Atbara river

Blue Nile

Rossieres

No local grid, international power hub

The GERD will allow Ethiopia to become a power hub for the region, but the high political, economical and environmental impact has made fundraising difficult.

 

Today, Ethiopia exports electricity to Sudan and Djibouti, and is building a series of transmission lines that will allow it to connect with the rest of the countries of the East African pool.

ETHIOPIA

GERD

SOUTH SUDAN

Beles

White Nile

Ribb

Blue N.

UGANDA

Karadobi

Lake Tana

To Djibouti

Baro

Akoba

KENYA

Lake

Turkana

Sondu Miriu

Lake

Victoria

Magwagwa

Rusumo Falls

TANZANIA

Gwere-Luzira

Nimule

Nyagak

Ayago

Karuma

Buseruka

Muzizi

Bugoye

Mpanga

Kanungu

Kisiizi

Kikagati

Isimba

Kiira

BURUNDI

RWANDA

Lake Kivu

DRC

ZAMBIA

MALAWI

NAMIBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

ZIMBABWE

BOTSWANA

SOUTH AFRICA

Water highway,

power corridor

To Libya

To Jordan

A North-South power transmission corridor made up of an 8,000 km line will stretch from Egypt through Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to South Africa to transport energy generated by the GERD.

 

The corridor will provide the infrastructure for an integrated East and Southern African power market, which will allow increased regional power trade.

Burullus

Bardaweel

Qarun lake

Wadi Al Rayan

To Saudi Arabia

Cairo

International funding

With the help of Britain, Egypt was the first country in the Nile basin to design barriers across the river to control flooding and generate power.

 

Soviet loans and proceeds from Suez Canal tolls allowed former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser to begin work on the Aswan High Dam in 1960.

Assiut

Nag-Hamady

EGYPT

Esna

Assiut Barriage

Old Aswan

High Aswan

China and Arab funds

With the help of China and Arab funds, Sudan has developed some of the most important hydropower projects in the region.

Merowe

Jebel Aulia

Senner

Atbara river

SUDAN

Khashm el Gibra

Khartoum

Blue Nile

Key linkages

Strategic connections between different power pools will reduce the need for reserve capacities, resulting in lower energy costs.

Rossieres

Grand Renaissance dam

SOUTH SUDAN

White Nile

ETHIOPIA

Beles

No local grid,

international power hub

Ribb

Blue Nile

The GERD will allow Ethiopia to become a power hub for the region, but the high political, economical and environmental impact has made fundraising difficult.

 

Today, Ethiopia exports electricity to Sudan and Djibouti, and is building a series of transmission lines that will allow it to connect with the rest of the countries of the East African pool.

Karadobi

Lake Tana

To Djibouti

Baro

Akoba

UGANDA

Heavy loan burdens

and the control over local resoiurces

While the World Bank remains one of the main creditors for some African countries, the emergence of economic powers such as China in the region raises questions about outside influence in the region.

 

For example, the Asian giant has emerged as a major source of cheap credit for Uganda, funnelling huge amounts of loans into hydropower dams, highways and fiber optic cables.

KENYA

Lake

Turkana

Sondu Miriu

Lake

Victoria

Magwagwa

Gwere-Luzira

Nimule

Rusumo Falls

Nyagak

Ayago

TANZANIA

Lake Albert

Karuma

Buseruka

Muzizi

Bugoye

ZAMBIA

Mpanga

MALAWI

Lake Edward

Kanungu

Kisiizi

Kikagati

Isimba

Kiira

NAMIBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

RWANDA

Lake Kivu

ZIMBABWE

DRC

BURUNDI

BOTSWANA

SOUTH AFRICA

Water highway, power corridor

A North-South power transmission Corridor will be a 8 000 kilometre line stretching from Egypt through Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to South Africa to transport energy generated by the Great Renaissance Dam.

 

The corridor will be connecting the East African and Southern African Power Pools.

EGYPT

To Libya

To Jordan

To Saudi

Arabia

Key linkages

Strategic connections between different power pools will reduce the need for reserve capacities, resulting in lower energy costs.

International

funding

With the help of Britain, Egypt was the first country in the Nile basin to design barriers across the river to control flooding and generate power.

 

Soviet loans and proceeds from Suez Canal tolls allowed former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser to begin work on the Aswan High Dam in 1960.

Assiut

Nag-Hamady

Esna

Assyut barriage

Old Aswan

High Aswan

SUDAN

Heavy loan burdens

and the control

over local resources

While the World Bank remains one of the main creditors for some African countries, the emergence of economic powers such as China in the region raises questions about outside influence in the region.

 

For example, the Asian giant has emerged as a major source of cheap credit for Uganda, funnelling huge amounts of loans into hydropower dams, highways and fiber optic cables.

Merowe

Jebel Aulia

Senner

Khashm el Gibra

Atbarah river

Blue Nile

Rosseires

No local grid, international power hub

The GERD will allow Ethiopia to become a power hub for the region, but the high political, economical and environmental impact has made fundraising difficult.

 

Today, Ethiopia exports electricity to Sudan and Djibouti, and is building a series of transmission lines that will allow it to connect with the rest of the countries of the East African pool.

ETHIOPIA

GERD

SOUTH SUDAN

Beles

White Nile

Ribb

Blue N.

UGANDA

Karadobi

Lake

Tana

To Djibouti

Baro

Akoba

KENYA

Lake

Turkana

Sondu Miriu

Lake

Victoria

Magwagwa

Rusumo Falls

TANZANIA

Gwere-Luzira

Nimule

Nyagak

Ayago

Karuma

Buseruka

Muzizi

Bugoye

Mpanga

Kanungu

Kisiizi

Kikagati

Isimba

Kiira

BURUNDI

RWANDA

Lake Kivu

DRC

MALAWI

ZAMBIA

NAMIBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

ZIMBABWE

BOTSWANA

SOUTH AFRICA

Water highway, power corridor

A North-South power transmission corridor made up of an 8,000 km line will stretch from Egypt through Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to South Africa to transport energy generated by the GERD.

 

The corridor will provide the infrastructure for an integrated East and Southern African power market, which will allow increased regional power trade.

EGYPT

To Libya

To Jordan

To Saudi

Arabia

Key linkages

Strategic connections between different power pools will reduce the need for reserve capacities, resulting in lower energy costs.

International funding

With the help of Britain, Egypt was the first country in the Nile basin to design barriers across the river to control flooding and generate power.

 

Soviet loans and proceeds from Suez Canal tolls allowed former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser to begin work on the Aswan High Dam in 1960.

Assiut

Nag-Hamady

Esna

Assyut barriage

Old Aswan

High Aswan

SUDAN

Heavy loan burdens and the control over local resources

CHINA AND ARAB FUNDS

With the help of China and Arab funds, Sudan has developed some of the most important hydropower projects in the region.

While the World Bank remains one of the main creditors for some African countries, the emergence of economic powers such as China in the region raises questions about outside influence in the region.

 

For example, the Asian giant has emerged as a major source of cheap credit for Uganda, funnelling huge amounts of loans into hydropower dams, highways and fiber optic cables.

Merowe

Jebel Aulia

Senner

Khashm el Gibra

Atbara river

Blue Nile

Rossieres

No local grid, international power hub

The GERD will allow Ethiopia to become a power hub for the region, but the high political, economical and environmental impact has made fundraising difficult.

 

Today, Ethiopia exports electricity to Sudan and Djibouti, and is building a series of transmission lines that will allow it to connect with the rest of the countries of the East African pool.

ETHIOPIA

GERD

SOUTH SUDAN

Beles

White Nile

Ribb

Blue N.

UGANDA

Karadobi

Lake Tana

To Djibouti

Baro

Akoba

KENYA

Lake

Turkana

Sondu Miriu

Lake

Victoria

Magwagwa

Rusumo Falls

TANZANIA

Gwere-Luzira

Nimule

Nyagak

Ayago

Karuma

Buseruka

Muzizi

Bugoye

Mpanga

Kanungu

Kisiizi

Kikagati

Isimba

Kiira

BURUNDI

RWANDA

Lake Kivu

DRC

ZAMBIA

MALAWI

NAMIBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

ZIMBABWE

BOTSWANA

SOUTH AFRICA

Water highway,

power corridor

To Jordan

To Libya

Burullus

Bardaweel

Qarun lake

A North-South power transmission corridor made up of an 8,000 km line will stretch from Egypt through Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to South Africa to transport energy generated by the GERD.

 

The corridor will provide the infrastructure for an integrated East and Southern African power market, which will allow increased regional power trade.

Wadi Al Rayan

To Saudi Arabia

Cairo

International funding

With the help of Britain, Egypt was the first country in the Nile basin to design barriers across the river to control flooding and generate power.

 

Soviet loans and proceeds from Suez Canal tolls allowed former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser to begin work on the Aswan High Dam in 1960.

Assiut

Nag-Hamady

EGYPT

Esna

Assiut Barriage

Old Aswan

High Aswan

China and Arab funds

With the help of China and Arab funds, Sudan has developed some of the most important hydropower projects in the region.

Merowe

Jebel Aulia

Senner

Atbara river

SUDAN

Khashm el Gibra

Khartoum

Blue Nile

Key linkages

Strategic connections between different power pools will reduce the need for reserve capacities, resulting in lower energy costs.

Rossieres

Grand Renaissance dam

SOUTH SUDAN

White Nile

ETHIOPIA

Beles

No local grid,

international power hub

Ribb

Blue Nile

The GERD will allow Ethiopia to become a power hub for the region, but the high political, economical and environmental impact has made fundraising difficult.

 

Today, Ethiopia exports electricity to Sudan and Djibouti, and is building a series of transmission lines that will allow it to connect with the rest of the countries of the East African pool.

Karadobi

Lake Tana

To Djibouti

Baro

Akoba

UGANDA

Heavy loan burdens

and the control over local resources

While the World Bank remains one of the main creditors for some African countries, the emergence of economic powers such as China in the region raises questions about outside influence in the region.

 

For example, the Asian giant has emerged as a major source of cheap credit for Uganda, funnelling huge amounts of loans into hydropower dams, highways and fiber optic cables.

KENYA

Lake

Turkana

Sondu Miriu

Lake

Victoria

Magwagwa

Gwere-Luzira

Nimule

Rusumo Falls

Nyagak

Ayago

TANZANIA

Lake Albert

Karuma

Buseruka

Muzizi

Bugoye

ZAMBIA

Mpanga

MALAWI

Lake Edward

Kanungu

Kisiizi

Kikagati

Isimba

Kiira

NAMIBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

RWANDA

Lake Kivu

ZIMBABWE

DRC

BURUNDI

BOTSWANA

SOUTH AFRICA

Ethiopia is hoping that greater electricity production will bring with it prosperity. Meanwhile, other East African countries have an eye on the dam’s lasting political, economic and environmental impact in the region.

Sources

Reuters reporting.
Hydropower projects from Nile Basin Initiative
Irrigation projections for the Nile Basin countries from the United Nations
Satellite image of the GERD from Maxar Technologies ©2021
Satellite image of Earth at night, 2016, from NASA
Nile River inflows from UNESCO
Scenarios of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Altitude and Relevant Reservoir by Using DEM and 3D Analysis from R.R. Ali in the Middle East Journal of Applied Sciences

Edited by

Katharine Houreld and Mike Collett-White